By Laura Nahmias

Over a year in advance of the 2012 races, Democrats are already plotting a robust challenge to State Sen. Marty Golden, and the man at the top of the list of possible candidates is Carlo Scissura, chief of staff to Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz. 
Brooklyn politicians said Scissura has the name recognition and relationships in the borough necessary to mount a challenge to Golden. Asked whether he was considering a run, Scissura would not close out on the possibility. 
“It’s flattering,” Scissura said. “I’m being urged by so many community and political leaders to run for the seat. However, I’m not going to make a decision on my future until the fall. Right now my focus is on Marty Markowitz.”
Mentioned in the same breath as Scissura are Joanne Seminara, a southern Brooklyn District Leader, and Council Member Vinnie Gentile. Seminara does not have the same base as Scissura, Brooklyn operatives said, and Gentile won’t be term-limited out of City Council until 2017, making it unlikely he’d risk a challenge to Golden’s seat. 
To some, Golden’s circumstances echo those of former Queens Senator Frank Padavan, who was ousted this year by Tony Avella. Both senators represent conservative districts that have grown gradually more Democratic with time. Both are close to Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Padavan’s defeat was a carefully orchestrated multi-year effort by unions and Senate Democrats. To beat Golden, Democrats are organizing a similar effort, more than a year in advance of the 2012 election.  
There are certainly major differences between the Golden and Padavan. Padavan was in office 40 years, while Golden has been a Senator since 2002. And Golden is well-liked and recognized in his district, an ex-cop with a sizable war chest to run against any upstart who threatens him. His only competitive race was in 2002, when he ran against now-New York City Council Member Vinnie Gentile. In that race he spent $3 million, and walked away with 56 percent of the vote. 

But Democrats say 2012 is the year Golden could lose. He’s taken unpopular positions on schools, unions and the millionaire’s tax. And he won’t be helped by increased Democratic voter turnout in a presidential election year. The number of registered Democrats in his district increased over the past decade by 7,000, while the number of registered Republicans dropped by 3,000, leaving Democrats with a 45,000 voter enrollment advantage. 

A high percentage of his district are union or uniformed workers, which have long supported Golden. But the recent news cycle has been unkind to Golden, from a free foot massage in the LOB rotunda, to relatives in bar fights, to accidentally hitting a senior citizen with his SUV. His colleagues feel that he is just a victim of poor timing. 

“I do believe he gets unfairly targeted,” said Nicole Malliotakis, the freshman Republican Assembly member who shares both a district and office space with Golden. 
But the Democrats said Golden had lost touch with his constituents. 
“By failing to protect the interests of children, workers, and tenants, Marty Golden has proven time and again that he chooses his conservative Republican colleagues over the people of the city he’s supposed to represent,” said Austin Shafran, spokesman for the Senate Democratic Conference.
One union planning to canvass against him is UFCW Local 1500, the grocery workers union that also targeted Padavan in 2010. Golden can’t support his constituents in Albany because he is being forced to hew the party line on issues he should be more independent about, said UFCW Local 1500 president Pat Purcell.  
“I will give credit to the Republican party that they do know how to have some type of real discipline in voting, but will that discipline hurt folks in more middle class types of districts?” Purcell said. “It caught up with Frank Padavan and I think it will catch up with Golden as well.” 
But others cautioned there were major impediments to Democratic takeover of the Bay Ridge seat. For one, redistricting will afford Republicans with an opportunity to corral more voters from Sen. Carl Kruger’s district. And Senate Democrats have far less cash to prop up any potential challengers to Golden than they did during the most recent election cycle, because of overspending during their time in the majority. And whether the grocery workers union can be an effective counterweight to police and fire unions, that will no doubt come out in support of Golden’s re-election, is an open question. 
In Brooklyn, unlike Queens, all roads to victory seem to run through or close to Vito Lopez. The Brooklyn Democratic Party has money, whereas the Senate Democrats do not. A real challenger will have to be able to raise money from elsewhere in New York. 
Golden would not comment on Scissura as a challenger or whether he felt he had been unfairly targeted as a result of his votes on the state budget. He did say, however, that he is more finely attuned to his district than Democrats may believe. 
“I have made it my business to know how people in my community are thinking,” Golden said in an email. “It’s that commitment to my community that has resulted in my running unopposed or by winning by comfortable margins.”